Monday, May 5, 2008

Could Jupiter wreck the solar system?

"So what's the likelihood Mercury could crash into the Earth? If it did, the asteroid that most likely wiped out the dinosaurs will seem like a drop in the ocean compared with a planet 4880 km in diameter slamming into us. There will be very little left after this wrecking ball impact.

But here's the kicker: There is only a 1% chance that these gravitational instabilities of the inner Solar System are likely to cause any kind of chaos before the Sun turns into a Red Giant and swallows Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars in 7 billion years time. So, no need to look out for death-wish Mercury quite yet… there's a very low chance that any of this will happen. But some good news for Mars; the researchers have also found that if the chaos does ensue, the Red Planet may be flung out of the Solar System, possibly escaping our expanding Sun. So, let's get those Mars colonies started! Well, within the next few billions of years anyhow…"

Good stuff for the next science-fiction movie

Could Jupiter Wreck the Solar System?

Could Jupiter throw the planets into each other? NASA/JPL-Caltech/T. Pyle (SSC)
Happily orbiting the Sun, the eight planets (plus Pluto and other minor planets) appear to have a high degree of long-term gravitational stability. But Jupiter has a huge gravitational influence over its siblings, especially the smaller planets.
The huge gravitational pull of Jupiter seems to be bullying Mercury into an increasingly eccentric death-orbit, possibly flinging the cosmic lightweight into the path of Venus. To make things worse, there might be dire consequences for Earth…
The researchers
Jacques Laskar
Konstantin Batygin
and Gregory Laughlin

formulate four possible scenarios as to what may happen as Mercury gets disturbed:


  1. Mercury will crash into the Sun

  2. Mercury will be ejected from the solar system altogether

  3. Mercury will crash into Venus

  4. Mercury will crash into Earth
The last option is obviously the worst case scenario for us, but all will be bad news for Mercury, the small planet's fate appears to be sealed.
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