10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

clipped from research.stlouisfed.org

Stock Market still under extreme pressure

The chart below spans twenty five years for the s and P 500. Each bar is one month.

clipped from charts.barchart.com

Bank Stress Test Economic Scenarios

Here are the economic scenarios for the bank stress tests:

clipped from 2.bp.blogspot.com

Test of Banks Could lead to a Bottom in the Stock Market

This is one of the better articles I have read on the stress test--Stress Test for Banks Exposes Rift on Wall St. It has me thinking about the long term direction of the stock market.

I think if you read this article carefully you might conclude that much of what is being written about banks is getting discounted in the stock market. I am not saying everything is beautiful. Quite the contrary, we are teetering on the brink of disaster. But, I find myself asking myself constantly--has the market discounted the news. It is always hard when things look bleak to see the light at the end of the tunnel. However, the market always discounts the future long before the future gets here. The market always bottoms when things look bleakest to the herd. The herd tends to focus on the recent past, rarely looking forward into the future."

Test of Banks Could lead to a Bottom in the Stock Market

Anger really can kill you

clipped from www.reuters.com Anger and other strong emotions can trigger potentially deadly heart rhythms in certain vulnerable people, U.S. researchers said on Monday. Previous studies have shown that earthquakes, war or even the loss of a World Cup Soccer match can increase rates of death from sudden cardiac arrest, in which the heart stops circulating blood. "It's definitely been shown in all different ways that when you put a whole population under a stressor that sudden death will increase," said Dr. Rachel Lampert of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, whose study appears in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology. "It says yes, anger really does impact the heart's electrical system in very specific ways that can lead to sudden death," she said.

Down side range expansion continues--good trade opportunity

The downside range expansion continues and all systems indicate that market is going lower. You will notice the spike down to the 741 area in November. Will history repeat itself? i think to some extent it will. Traders should be on their toes for any spike below 741 overnight or early Tuesday morning.

I doubt we will see the monster rally we saw in November. But, looks good for a nice fat trade.

Complacent longs are still in the market and so far they have not capitulated. Sometime soon, very soon they are going to cry "Uncle".

clipped from charts.barchart.com

Stimulus Tax Break Savings

clipped from money.cnn.com TAX SAVINGS How households may fare under the economic recovery plan. Income Avg. tax savings Drop in tax bite Under $19K $476 -95% $19K-$38K $652 -22% $38K-$66K $781 -9% $66K-$112K $1,301 -7.5% $112K-$161K $2,549 -8.3% $161K-$227K $3,883 -8.3% $227K-$603K $5,133 -5.7% $2.8M plus $39,350 -1.4% Source:The Tax Policy C

Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan

Here is a novel idea. How about they start classifying banks. Identify the banks that need to be privatized, banks that need some help and can survive, and the banks that need nothing and are good to go.

Of course, politicians have already proved by forcing banks to take TARP money that they are unwilling to call a spade a spade.

I guess we wait until the next bank explodes and then try to throw some money at the problem and a box of bandages.

clipped from www.washingtonpost.com Just days before Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was scheduled to lay out his much-anticipated plan to deal with the toxic assets imperiling the financial system, he and his team made a sudden about-face. According to several sources involved in the deliberations, Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers. They needed an alternative and found it in a previously considered initiative to pair private investments and public loans to try to buy the risky assets and take them off the books of banks. There was one problem: They didn't have enough time to work out many details or consult with others before the plan was supposed to be unveiled.

Author Terry Pratchett blames his Alzheimer's on mercury fillings

clipped from www.guardian.co.uk Terry Pratchett has reopened the controversy about the safety of mercury-based tooth fillings by blaming them for his Alzheimer's disease. The author of the Discworld series describes the fillings - which millions of Britons have - as "toxic waste". "Having something like mercury in your mouth seemed to me to be a really bad idea and I got rid of the stuff," said Pratchett.

New Penny: Lincoln Love Helps Keep Waste Alive

How many pennies do you have in your pocket right now? Do you love or hate pennies?

Penny for your thoughts? Or, more like fifty bucks?

Ever wonder why we are in such deep doo doo? Maybe decisions by our government like this will clue you in.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com As a one of four new pennies enters circulation today, it reintroduces the question of why we even need pennies in the first place. In a 2006 editorial in the Journal, Harvard economist Greg Mankiw made a simple case for getting rid of the penny. “The purpose of the monetary system is to facilitate exchange, but I have to acknowledge that the penny no longer serves that purpose. When people start leaving a monetary unit at the cash register for the next customer, the unit is too small to be useful. I know that some people will be upset when their favorite aphorisms become anachronistic, but a nickel saved is also a nickel earned,” he wrote. “Producing a penny now costs about 1.7 cents. A 2006 poll by coin-counter CoinStar, not a completely unbiased source, found that two-thirds of people think the penny should be kept as an “important symbol of American culture, history and the economy.”

Household Wealth Plunged In ‘08, Reversing Rise

Borrowing for second homes accounts for part of the large increase in debt over the last five years. This is something that is not being discussed or factored into the current housing situation. An enormous amount of second homes are going into foreclosure and even more are on the market for sale. This overhang in the housing market is likely to continue for a long time. Is anyone in the government discussing supply and demand as they look for a quick fix for the housing crisis?

The drop in the stock market is hurting the newly retired and really weighing on Baby Boomers.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com U.S. household wealth appeared to have plummeted in 2008 in the face of falling values for stocks and homes, a Federal Reserve report showed, more than reversing gains achieved over the previous three years. According to the Fed’s survey of consumer finances, released Thursday, average net worth is estimated to have fallen 22.7% from 2007 until October 2008. The median, or midpoint, fell a more modest 17.8%, suggesting declines were centered among wealthier families. The share of households with loan payments exceeding 40% of their income rose 2.5 percentage points between the 2004 and 2007 surveys, to 14.7%. Borrowing for second homes was a big factor pushing up debt between 2004 and 2007, the Fed said. –Brian Blackstone

Fantastic Newspaper Site--Front Pages

If you like the front page of newspapers you will love this site. Want to see the front page of your hometown newspaper? Look at front pages from all over the U.S. and around the world?

The Newseum displays these daily newspaper front pages in their original, unedited form.

Once you get to the website all you need to do is click and the front page pops right up. No searching, it is map driven. They also have them sorted by list.

Go here to try it out, Newseum

Subscribe to Smart Clips via Email

The death of equity

As soon as I read this headline I started feeling frisky. This is the kind of thing that tells you---chicken on the hill.

My personal belief is that market is going to take one last fierce tumble. The capitulation phase of this long term bear market that started back in 2000.

I am ready to buy tech stocks with both hands and both feet if this occurs. I will be buying the names that were all in vogue during the 90s. The big names plus some of the new kids on the block like RIMM and JNPR.

Bear markets usually end ugly. But when you hear all your friends saying they are selling all their stocks and will never buy a stock again---knock knock knock--opportunity.

Start maxing out the 401k and getting ready.

Imagine buying something like INTC at the equivalent price of 87 cents the day after the crash in 1987. That is the ticket.

clipped from ftalphaville.ft.com “Global equities have returned -29% this decade, compared to 80% from government bonds. We’ve seen two 50% equity bear markets in just five years. This combination of miserable returns and extreme volatility has led some to pronounce that, after 50 years, the cult of the equity is dead.” Now, here’s where things get scary .Buckland observes that prior to 1960 US equities yielded twice as much as government bonds. At current treasury prices, that would imply an equity market yielding 6 per cent  and… the S&P would need to fall by another 40% to deliver that yield on the current dividend base. In other words, the S&P would have to trade at around 500 points.

Nations Rush to Establish New Barriers to Trade

This goes along with my growing concerns about deflation.

When you look around the globe you can see that the entire world economy is in trouble and world leaders really don't know what to do about it.

After 50 years of inflation everyone has a mindset about inflation. But, who really has an understanding of deflation and what to do about it?

If you are old enough you might remember WHIP--whip inflation now. That brainy, government, idea didn't work as intended. Instead price controls gave us one percent inflation a month.

It took almost a decade and Paul Volker to figure it out.

Well now we are heading for a global trade war. Meaning barriers and trade tariffs that could very well choke off global trading.

Just the mention of "Buy America" has the world in a tizzy.

I have no doubt that many American consumers are thinking "buy America" right now. And, I have no doubt that companies will be getting behind this theme in their advertising soon.

Given the dire straights in the auto industry, I have to admit. If I bought a new car it would have to be an American made car. I would just hold my nose and do it. The idea of millions of unemployed in Michigan does not sit well with me.

Seems like the American thing to do. Doesn't it?

clipped from online.wsj.com Countries grappling with global recession have enacted a wave of barriers to world commerce since early last month, scrambling to safeguard their key industries -- often by damaging those of their neighbors. The European Union has warned the U.S. that proposed "Buy American" provisions in planned stimulus spending could break trade rules. Meanwhile, EU nations have reversed direction and tightened their own trade rules, for instance by resuming subsidies to dairy farmers' exports and effectively barring Chinese screws and bolts from their market, while accusing China of dumping them below cost.

Damnification

This article by Paul Krugman is worth reading and considering.

What if we are going into a period of long term deflation? Are you really ready for that in your portfolio?

I guess getting into cash and getting ready to invest in companies selling buttons and shoes might be a good idea.

clipped from krugman.blogs.nytimes.com absent a change in fiscal policy, CBO projects that the shortfall in the nation’s output relative to potential levels will be the largest– in duration and depth– since the Depression of the 1930s. This really should be the key point in the stimulus debate. Yes, the effects of fiscal policy are uncertain; yes, running up large debts is risky; but doing nothing is even riskier, because there’s a high probability that if we don’t act strongly deflation will get embedded in the economy. We may be damned if we do, but we’ll almost surely be damnified if we don’t. The paradox of thrift is the best-known example: when everyone tries to save more in an economy in which interest rates are up against the zero bound, everyone’s income falls, and we’re worse off than before. The paradox of deleveraging has gotten currency, too: everyone tries to shrink their balance sheet, and the result is plunging asset prices, which leave everyone worse capitalized than before.

Resveratrol Clinical Trials

People selling Resveratrol via multi level marketing, jumped all over 60 minutes for now including them in their story.

Somebody missed the point. You decide.

clipped from www.alzheimersreadingroom.com Yesterday, I posted an article about Resveratrol, Fountain Of Youth In A Wine Rx? The catalyst for the article was a segment I saw on 60 minutes. The form of the drug, Resveratrol, that I was referring to is being developed by Sirtris Pharmaceutical, a Cambridge, Mass research company. SRT501, a formulation of resveratrol with roughly five times higher bioavailability than the chemical alone

Foreclosures Rising: One Every 13 Seconds

This is a bit on the disturbing side.

I just finished reading the article and we already had another 10 foreclosures.

Foreclosures are up by more than 5,000 since the original article was written.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com For anyone who needs a constant reminder of misery, the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) has added a new feature to its Web site. CRL, a nonprofit research and lobbying group, which favors aggressive policies to help distressed borrowers, now features on its home page a continually updated tally of the estimated number of home foreclosures started since Jan. 1. The total stood at more than 237,000 early Thursday afternoon and is rising at a rate of one every 13 seconds.

Solarz and Ferrisi set NYc subway record

Dig math and records? This one is for you.

I think I would rather try and eat a record amount of pizza.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com Namely, “I had access to certain programs I could use, and I had access to people with backgrounds in graph theory.” But he didn’t have access to computing power that could handle a number as big as 468!, or 468 multiplied by 467 multiplied by 466 and so on to 2 and 1. That’s the number of possible routes, if you allow any possible route, even one where the second station is nowhere near the first. It’s also a number so big that I had trouble finding software to compute it; best I can tell, it’s about 144 followed by 1,046 zeroes, or a whole lot bigger than a googol (Google’s namesake, one followed by 100 zeroes) Chris Solarz and Matt Ferrisi, colleagues at an investment-management company they’d prefer not be named, received widespread publicity when they announced they were targeting the Guinness world record of 24 hours, 54 minutes and three seconds

Octuplets' mom to give first interview

Nadya Suleman has 14 kids all together. This interview should be of great interest to many.

I'm sure the negativo's will be out in force on this one.

clipped from blogs.usatoday.com Nadya Suleman, the California mother of the newborn octuplets, left a Los Angeles-area hospital early today. The New York Daily News writes, The 33-year-old snuck out of the hospital under cover of darkness Thursday and a spokeswoman pleaded for her privacy. But Suleman is wasting no time going public. She's doing her first media interview today with NBC News correspondent Ann Curry. Excerpts will be shown tonight. Air-date to follow. Meanwhile, The Associated Press reports that Suleman received more than $165,000 in state disability payments for an on-the-job back injury.

Is Etanercept the Cure for Alzheimer's

I'm sure anyone suffering from Alzheimer's that has the financial where with all will be tempted to try this treatment.

I find myself thinking, why not?

clipped from www.alzheimersreadingroom.com Alzheimer's is the sixth leading cause of death recently surpassing diabetes. If a cure is not found, ten million baby boomer's can expect to suffer from Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's treatment is likely to be an enormous market so you can expect all kinds of alternative treatments to be popping out of the woodwork. Here comes Dr. Edward Tobinick and his claim that he has the cure--etanercept. Dr. Tobinick claims he injects a shot of etanercept--a drug approved for arthritis-- into the neck of his patients. Unfortunately, in the video provided below, he closed the door when it was time to demonstrate the procedure. He says,

China surpasses U, S in car sales

File this one under food for thought. Wouldn't it be interesting if we could spot the next big maker of cars in China? Or the big worldwide Chinese car maker of the future?

I wonder what a 100 share investment in Ford back in the early 1900s would be worth now. Hmm, not as much as it would have been worth had you sold it in the late 1900s.

Note to ancestors. Sell all my China auto stocks in 2099.

clipped from online.wsj.com Like the U.S. in the early 1900s, China has dozens of small but spirited car makers that grew out of the country's burgeoning sales growth last decade. Chinese consumers bought 790,000 vehicles in January, according to General Motors Corp. In the U.S., total car and light-truck sales were just under 657,000 that month, according to Autodata Corp.

Find the Wind

Ever think about starting your own wind farm? Well, first you have to find the wind. Here you go.

Maybe you just want to know how windy it is? Or maybe you just have an interest in wind.

clipped from firstlook.3tier.com

Find solar fast

We got Solar down here is south Florida.

clipped from firstlook.3tier.com